Like it has always happened for the last 40 years of democracy, the Portuguese President asked the leader of the most voted party to form government. Like every president before, he gave a political speech on what he believes the next government should do. He is also far from being the first president to warn about the risks of having communists in power. But, unlike what has always been the democratic tradition, the second most voted party will not allow the most voted party to form a minority government. It is their constitutional right to do so. So what is next? Here is what the future holds for Portugal:
Over the next few weeks:
1. The current PM will form a government with some people of his close group MPs and a few moderate party members. It will be hard to get good names on-board for a government that might not be around for more than 2 weeks
2. The government will not pass in parliament due to the votes of the socialists, left radicals and communists
3. The president will then ask the leader of the 2nd most voted party to form government. The supporters of the idea of a coup in Portugal will be saying some other nonsense about some other country
4. Costa will form a government without members of the radical left or the communists. Radical left and communists let the government pass in parliamentary vote.
5. President Cavaco will warn about the lack of stability of the new solution and once again defend the tradition of the defeated centrist party to allow the other centrist party to lead the government
6. The socialist party will have to get its first budget approved. In order to do so, it will make changes in the labour law (making the labour market rigid) and eliminate some of the expense cuts of previous governments in agrrement with Left Radicals.
7. The first draft will not be approved in Brussels, but after a few rounds and over-optimistic assumptions on growth and tax collections, the budget will be approved in Brussels and by the Portuguese parliament
8. The minimum wage will increase in January
9. The centrist candidate Marcelo will be elected president in January. During the campaign, he will be intentionally ambiguous about what he would do in different political scenarios.
10. Growth will continue the path of 2015 but employment will stop increasing at the same rate
11. The left-wing parties will be united in the first months of the year. A short-lived increase in consumption will be used as proof that ending austerity works. External balance will deteriorate. Left parties will change labour law, banking regulations and increase capital taxes.
12. After missing the original budget targets, the government will have to get a new revised public budget approved somewhere in April. This will be a hard one.
13. If the communists don’t approve it, and the right wing parties do not change leadership, the revised budget will not pass in parliament and the government will fall
14. The socialist party will accuse the right wing pro-european parties of being irresponsible for not approving their Brussels negotiated budget. Brussels will put pressure
15. New elections in June
16. If the communists approve the budget, the government will stay in power until the end of 2016. Around that time, the budgetary difficulties for 2017 will be impossible to address by a government with support from communists and left radicals. The wounds of a 1 year unexpected and unwanted coalition will become obvious.
17. Points 13 and 14 will happen anyway just a few months later.
18. Elections in March 2017.